Stockport County vs Barnsley — League One

**Stockport County 3-1 Barnsley**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 91% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the defending (31%) and attack (29%), with build-up (20%) and duels (19%) also contributing to the atypical nature of the game. Both teams created a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with Stockport County 5 and Barnsley 4, a joint volume of 9 in total at the 99th percentile. Despite this parity in big chances, Barnsley were much more direct in their threat, recording 9 shots on target to Stockport County's 4, a gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Stockport County exerted significant pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 11 corners to Barnsley's 5, a gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. This pressure forced both sides to defend deep, with 69 clearances in total at the 98th percentile of joint volume. While few interceptions were recorded in the match (15 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume), Stockport County was clearly ahead with 11 to Barnsley's 4. Stockport County also won the physical battle on the ground, winning 45 ground duels to Barnsley's 27, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. They were also more successful in the air, winning 25 aerial duels to Barnsley's 15, a gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. Barnsley, meanwhile, focused on winning the ball back by challenging, with 13 tackles to Stockport County's 24, a gap at the 96th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Stockport County win 21%, draw 34%, and Barnsley win 45%. The performances pointed to a Barnsley win, but the actual result had only 21% probability. With Barnsley recording 9 shots on target to Stockport County's 4, the result was a surprise given the direct threat they posed.