CSKA Moscow vs Rodina — Russian Premier League

**CSKA Moscow 3-0 Rodina**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 78% of matches were more unusual than this one. The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attacking phase (43%) and the build-up (34%). CSKA Moscow and Rodina both created a high volume of big chances, with 8 in total at the 90th percentile of joint volume. However, CSKA Moscow was far more effective in this area, creating 7 big chances compared to just 1 for Rodina, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** CSKA Moscow maintained significant territorial control, completing 260 passes in the opponent's half to Rodina's 100, a gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. They also utilized direct play to bypass the midfield, recording 30 accurate long balls to Rodina's 19, a gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. While both sides were patient in their own halves with 427 passes in total (87th percentile of joint volume), CSKA Moscow was more active on the flanks, recording 10 accurate crosses to Rodina's 6, a gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. Rodina faced heavy pressure, as evidenced by the 57 clearances in the match (92nd percentile of joint volume), with both sides contributing nearly equally. In the final third, CSKA Moscow was much more active, recording 18 shots inside the box to Rodina's 7, a gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. This translated into a direct threat on goal, with CSKA Moscow finding the target 11 times compared to Rodina's 3, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Few aerial duels were won in the match, but CSKA Moscow was clearly ahead with 10 to Rodina's 7, a gap at the 70th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are CSKA Moscow win 71%, draw 22%, and Rodina win 7%. The performances pointed to a CSKA Moscow win and that is what happened. This was a deserved result, supported by CSKA Moscow creating 7 big chances to Rodina's 1.