Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense — Brasileirão

**Chapecoense 1-4 Athletico Paranaense**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 80% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the attacking phase (40%) and build-up (31%). The most striking feature was the sheer volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, as both teams created 10 big chances in total, a figure at the 99th percentile of their joint volume. Chapecoense actually had the edge in this area, creating 6 big chances to Athletico Paranaense's 4, a gap at the 84th percentile. Furthermore, both sides maintained a high direct threat on goal, recording 15 shots on target in total, which ranks in the 98th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Athletico Paranaense opted for a more patient approach from the back, completing 304 passes in their own half compared to Chapecoense's 162, a +142 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. Despite this, both teams were very active in their own halves, recording 466 passes in total, a high volume at the 88th percentile. Chapecoense looked to bypass the midfield more frequently, making 34 accurate long balls to Athletico Paranaense's 23, a +11 gap at the 82nd percentile. They also found success down the flanks, recording 10 accurate crosses to just 2 for the opposition, a +8 gap at the 96th percentile. While Chapecoense took 8 shots from distance to Athletico Paranaense's 3, a +5 gap at the 89th percentile, both sides maintained sustained pressure near the goal, resulting in 13 corners in total, a high volume at the 92nd percentile. In terms of physicality, few ground duels were won in the match, but Athletico Paranaense was clearly ahead with 33 to Chapecoense's 21, a +12 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Similarly, few aerial duels were won in the match, but Chapecoense was clearly ahead with 10 to Athletico Paranaense's 7, a +3 gap at the 70th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were remarkably passive, recording only 14 tackles in total, a figure in the 1st percentile of joint volume.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chapecoense win 31%, draw 33%, and Athletico Paranaense win 36%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Despite Chapecoense creating 6 big chances to Athletico Paranaense's 4, the 1-4 scoreline remains a plausible result in a wide-open game.