Botafogo vs Chapecoense — Brasileirão

**Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 55% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking phase (44%) and the build-up (43%). A defining characteristic was the disparity in accuracy: few shots on target were recorded in the match (11 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Botafogo was clearly ahead with 11 to Chapecoense's 0, a gap at the 100th percentile. Furthermore, both sides were highly active in their own halves, completing 510 passes in total (98th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them.

**How it played out:** The game featured a high volume of territorial control, with 388 passes in the opponent's half (95th percentile of joint volume) shared almost equally. While both teams were patient in their own halves, Chapecoense looked to bypass the midfield more directly, as they were clearly ahead with 27 accurate long balls to Botafogo's 19 (78th percentile of gaps) in a match with few such balls overall (26th percentile of joint volume). Botafogo, meanwhile, utilized the flanks more effectively, making 10 accurate crosses to Chapecoense's 4 (91st percentile of gaps). Both sides also took many shots from distance (13 in total, 88th percentile of joint volume), with Botafogo making 8 to Chapecoense's 5 (77th percentile of gaps). In the defensive phase, Botafogo faced more pressure, recording 25 clearances to Chapecoense's 18 (77th percentile of gaps) in a match with a high volume of clearances overall (70th percentile). Chapecoense also found success in one-on-one situations, making 11 successful dribbles to Botafogo's 7 (80th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Botafogo win 73%, draw 25%, and Chapecoense win 2%. The performances pointed to a Botafogo win and that is what happened, supported by Botafogo creating 4 big chances to Chapecoense's 0.