Monaco vs Lille — Ligue 1

**Monaco 1-1 Lille**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (69% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in the defensive actions, where Lille made 40 clearances to Monaco's 6, a +34 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps in a match with few clearances overall (46 in total, 10th percentile of joint volume). On the other side of the pitch, Monaco was clearly ahead in the build-up, recording 9 accurate crosses to Lille's 0, a +9 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps in a match with few accurate crosses overall (9 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Monaco found more ways to penetrate the final third, recording 13 shots inside the box to Lille's 3, a +10 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps in a match with few shots inside the box overall (16 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume). They also had a clear edge in long-range attempts, recording 8 shots from distance to Lille's 1, a +7 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps in a match with few shots from distance overall (9 in total, 14th percentile of joint volume). Lille focused on defensive organization, recording 16 interceptions to Monaco's 6, a +10 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Monaco also had a small edge in beating opponents one-on-one, recording 6 successful dribbles to Lille's 3, a +3 gap at the 75th percentile of gaps in a match with few successful dribbles overall (9 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume). The physical battle was relatively balanced, with 16 aerial duels won in total and 65 ground duels won between the two sides.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Monaco win 29%, draw 37%, and Lille win 34%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where both sides had 1 big chance each.