Monterrey vs Chivas — Liga MX

**Monterrey 0-1 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 52% of matches. The primary drivers of this atypicality were the duels (30% of the unusualness), the attacking output (26%), and the build-up (25%). Chivas won 28 aerial duels to Monterrey's 14, a +14 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, in a game where both sides won 42 aerial duels in total (74th percentile of joint volume). At the other end, Chivas made 47 clearances to Monterrey's 12, a +35 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, indicating a side defending deep and getting the ball away under pressure.

**How it played out:** Chivas also won the majority of the physical battles on the ground, winning 35 duels to Monterrey's 26, a +9 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps, despite few ground duels being won in the match overall (61 in total, 25th percentile of joint volume). Monterrey showed a more patient approach from the back, completing 230 passes in their own half compared to Chivas's 108, a +122 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. However, both teams were equally active in the opponent's half, completing 352 passes in total (87th percentile of joint volume). Monterrey found more success down the flanks, recording 8 accurate crosses to Chivas's 3, a +5 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. In the final third, both sides created 3 big chances each (6 in total, 87th percentile of joint volume) and recorded 12 shots on target in total (91st percentile of joint volume). While few shots from distance were taken in the match (5 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume), Chivas was clearly ahead with 4 to Monterrey's 1, a +3 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Monterrey win 9%, draw 29%, and Chivas win 62%. The performances pointed to a Chivas win and that is what happened. With Chivas recording 7 shots on target to Monterrey's 5, the result was deserved.