Al-Jazira vs Muharraq — AFC Champions League 2

**Al-Jazira 4-2 Muharraq**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 96% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (35%), duels (27%), and defending (27%). A defining characteristic was the lack of direct play, with only 30 accurate long balls in the match (1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Muharraq was clearly ahead with 18 to Al-Jazira's 12 (+6, 73rd percentile of gaps). Furthermore, successful dribbles were almost non-existent, with only 4 in the match (1st percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Muharraq was clearly ahead with 4 to Al-Jazira's 0 (+4, 80th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Al-Jazira controlled more of the territory despite a low-volume environment, recording 154 passes in the opponent's half compared to Muharraq's 61 (+93, 77th percentile of gaps), even though only 215 such passes were made in total (2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Both sides were patient in their own halves, completing 195 and 202 passes respectively (397 in total, 82nd percentile of joint volume). Al-Jazira was more active in winning the ball back, making 17 tackles to Muharraq's 8 (+9, 93rd percentile of gaps) in a game with few tackles overall (25 in total, 15th percentile). They also recorded 16 interceptions to Muharraq's 8 (+8, 95th percentile of gaps) and 19 clearances to 12 (+7, 77th percentile of gaps). In the final third, both teams were equally productive, creating 3 big chances each (6 in total, 84th percentile of joint volume) and recording 11 shots on target in total (83rd percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Al-Jazira win 55%, draw 24%, and Muharraq win 21%. The performances pointed to a Al-Jazira win (55%), and that is what happened. This was supported by Al-Jazira's 7 shots on target compared to Muharraq's 4.