Liverpool vs Chelsea — EFL Cup

**Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (95% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the lack of direct play, with only 33 accurate long balls between the two teams (Liverpool 19, Chelsea 14), a volume in the 3rd percentile of joint totals. Defending also stood out: there were few interceptions overall (16 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume), but Liverpool made 12 to Chelsea's 4, a +8 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** Chelsea took the physical edge in the air and on the ground. They won 20 aerial duels to Liverpool's 11 (92nd percentile of gaps) and 33 ground duels to 26 (79th percentile of gaps), even though few ground duels were won in the match overall (59 in total, 22nd percentile). Chelsea also faced more pressure, recording 32 clearances to Liverpool's 15 (84th percentile of gaps). Liverpool found more success down the flanks, making 5 accurate crosses to Chelsea's 2 (75th percentile of gaps), and they also earned more corners (7 to 5; 12 in total, 85th percentile of joint volume). Both sides were cautious from distance, with only 5 shots from distance in total (20th percentile of joint volume). Both teams also threw bodies in front of shots, with 7 blocked shots in total (81st percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Liverpool 33%, draw 36%, and Chelsea 31%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide open game where Liverpool had 4 big chances to Chelsea's 2.