Milan vs Inter — Serie A

**Milan 3-1 Inter**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 53% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up, which accounted for 58% of the atypicality, followed by the attacking phase at 21%. Inter dominated the set-piece pressure, recording 11 corners to Milan's 3, a +8 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. Meanwhile, both sides were highly active on the flanks, completing 14 accurate crosses in total, a volume at the 97th percentile of joint volume, with Inter making 8 to Milan's 6.

**How it played out:** Inter maintained a significant territorial advantage, completing 259 passes in the opponent's half compared to Milan's 131, a +128 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. While both teams were patient in their own halves with 428 passes in total (89th percentile of joint volume), Inter was much more active in the final third, recording 13 shots inside the box to Milan's 4, a +9 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. This pressure forced Milan into a defensive stance; they recorded 36 clearances to Inter's 14, a +22 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Milan also recorded 3 blocked shots to Inter's 0, a +3 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps, in a match with few blocked shots overall (3 in total, 21st percentile of joint volume). In terms of direct threat, Inter made 8 shots on target to Milan's 4, a +4 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. There were few accurate long balls in the match, but Milan was clearly ahead with 29 to Inter's 15, a +14 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps. Both sides created 6 big chances in total (73rd percentile of joint volume), with Inter making 4 to Milan's 2, a +2 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Milan win 33%, draw 28%, and Inter win 39%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 3-1 scoreline is not surprising given that Inter had 4 big chances to Milan's 2.