Wil vs Winterthur — Swiss Challenge League

**Wil 0-3 Winterthur**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (53% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking output (36%) and the defensive actions (31%). Both teams did a lot of shots inside the box (22 in total, 95th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), with Winterthur making 2 more shots inside the box than the other side (Winterthur 12, Wil 10, 71st percentile of gaps). Furthermore, both sides were heavily involved in defensive actions, recording a high volume of blocked shots (Wil 5, Winterthur 5; 10 in total, 95th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Winterthur was the more effective side in the final third, creating 3 more big chances than the other side (Winterthur 3, Wil 0, 93rd percentile of gaps). They also took more long-range attempts, making 3 more shots from distance than the other side (Winterthur 7, Wil 4, 80th percentile of gaps). In terms of build-up, both teams utilized direct play with a high volume of accurate long balls (62 in total, 77th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), though Winterthur made 6 more accurate long balls than the other side (Winterthur 34, Wil 28, 73rd percentile of gaps). There were few corners in the match, but Winterthur was clearly ahead (Winterthur 4, Wil 2, 71st percentile of gaps). Wil focused on winning the ball back by challenging, making 8 more tackles than the other side (Wil 21, Winterthur 13, 91st percentile of gaps). The game was also combative on the ground, with both teams winning a high volume of ground duels (Wil 43, Winterthur 45; 88 in total, 93rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). There were few aerial duels won in the match, but Wil was clearly ahead (Wil 12, Winterthur 9, 70th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Wil win 11%, draw 36%, and Winterthur win 53%. The performances pointed to a Winterthur win (53%), and that is what happened. This was reflected in the big chances, where Winterthur had 3 to Wil's 0.