Central Córdoba de Santiago vs Unión — Liga Profesional

**Central Córdoba de Santiago 1-0 Unión**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 55% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending (54% of the unusualness), followed by duels (21%). Central Córdoba de Santiago threw bodies in front of shots to a massive degree, recording 9 blocked shots compared to Unión's 1, a +8 gap at the 100th percentile of gaps. Both sides were also under significant pressure, evidenced by a high volume of clearances, with 64 in total at the 97th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Unión was more successful at penetrating the final third, recording 11 shots inside the box to Central Córdoba de Santiago's 5, a +6 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Despite this, the direct threat on goal remained low for both sides, with only 5 shots on target in total, placing the match in the 27th percentile of joint volume. Both teams were involved in a physical battle, winning 81 ground duels in total (83rd percentile of joint volume) and 48 aerial duels (86th percentile of joint volume). Unión dominated the air, winning 30 aerial duels to Central Córdoba de Santiago's 18, a +12 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. While Unión made 21 tackles to 16, Central Córdoba de Santiago was more effective at reading the game, recording 10 interceptions to Unión's 5, a +5 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (15 in total, 25th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Central Córdoba de Santiago win 33%, draw 39%, and Unión win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 result is consistent with a match where both sides created 4 big chances in total.