Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC — Thai League 1

**Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (85% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the high volume of long-range attempts, with 14 shots from distance in total (93rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), and Chiangrai United making 8 to Chonburi FC's 6 (69th percentile of gaps). Despite these efforts from distance, both sides struggled to penetrate the final third, recording only 8 shots inside the box in total (15th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a high volume of physical interventions and defensive pressure. Both teams threw themselves in front of shots, recording 9 blocks in total (92nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume). While there were few interceptions in the match, Chiangrai United was clearly ahead with 9 to Chonburi FC's 4 (86th percentile of gaps). Chonburi FC also faced significant pressure, as there were few clearances in the match, but Chonburi FC was clearly ahead with 23 to Chiangrai United's 10 (76th percentile of gaps). In terms of ball progression, there were few successful dribbles in the match, but Chonburi FC was clearly ahead with 10 to Chiangrai United's 1 (96th percentile of gaps). The aerial battle remained balanced with 18 duels won in total (15th percentile of joint volume), while ground duels were nearly level at 35 for Chiangrai United and 37 for Chonburi FC.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chiangrai United win 25%, draw 39%, and Chonburi FC win 36%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-3 scoreline is not surprising, especially given that both sides only managed 1 big chance in total (12th percentile of joint volume).