Cruz Azul vs Chivas — Liga MX

**Cruz Azul 2-1 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (99% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in the build-up, where few passes in their own half were recorded in the match (241 in total, 11th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Chivas was clearly ahead with 164 to Cruz Azul's 77 (+87, 83rd percentile of gaps). This suggests a difference in how the sides managed the ball from the back. While the overall volume of play was standard, the distribution of these specific actions provided the only real deviation from the norm.

**How it played out:** Chivas also took more control in the final third, as few passes in the opponent's half were made in the match (260 in total, 24th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 167 to Cruz Azul's 93 (+74, 81st percentile of gaps). Despite this territorial presence, few shots from distance were taken in the match (7 in total, 26th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 5 to Cruz Azul's 2 (+3, 80th percentile of gaps). Both sides were equally active in the box, creating 5 big chances in total (77th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. The game was also highly combative on the ground, with 76 ground duels won in total (72nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), and Chivas won 40 to Cruz Azul's 36 (+4, 67th percentile of gaps). Defensively, both teams were under pressure, recording 46 clearances in total (81st percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them, while interceptions remained low at 11 in total (13th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Cruz Azul win 31%, draw 37%, and Chivas win 32%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where both sides produced 3 shots on target.