Sporting CP vs Estoril — Liga Portugal

**Sporting CP 3-0 Estoril**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (66% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the territorial control, as both teams completed a massive volume of passes in the opponent's half (Sporting CP 217, Estoril 204; 421 in total, 98th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). This was a game of high-frequency movement where neither side conceded ground easily. The unusualness was further defined by a combative physical battle, with Sporting CP winning 22 more ground duels than Estoril (Sporting CP 50, Estoril 28; 99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Sporting CP was the more proactive side in the final third, creating 4 more big chances than the other side (Sporting CP 4, Estoril 0; 91st percentile of gaps). While there were few shots from distance in the match (Sporting CP 2, Estoril 2; 17th percentile of joint volume), Sporting CP was clearly ahead in terms of wide play, making 3 more accurate crosses than Estoril (Sporting CP 3, Estoril 0; 75th percentile of gaps). They also found more success in the air, with Sporting CP winning 5 more aerial duels than Estoril (Sporting CP 10, Estoril 5; 80th percentile of gaps). Estoril, meanwhile, spent much of the game defending deep and getting the ball away under pressure, recording 11 more clearances than Sporting CP (Estoril 28, Sporting CP 17; 72nd percentile of gaps). Sporting CP also showed a superior ability to read the game, recording 4 more interceptions than Estoril (Sporting CP 10, Estoril 6; 82nd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a Sporting CP win (59%), and that is what happened. The fair probabilities are Sporting CP win 59%, draw 25%, and Estoril win 16%. Sporting CP's superiority was reflected in their 4 big chances compared to 0 for Estoril.