Toluca vs Chivas — Liga MX

**Toluca 2-0 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (92% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the attacking phase (38%), followed by defending (27%) and duels (27%). Despite the low volume of shots inside the box in the match (14 in total, 22nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Toluca was clearly ahead with 11 to Chivas's 3 (89th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Chivas took more shots from distance, recording 7 to Toluca's 2 (91st percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The physical nature of the game was evident in the ground duels, where both teams won a lot (88 in total, 93rd percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. In the air, however, few aerial duels won in the match, but Toluca was clearly ahead with 11 to Chivas's 5 (84th percentile of gaps). Toluca also showed a greater edge in winning the ball back, recording 23 tackles to Chivas's 18 (82nd percentile of gaps) and 13 interceptions to 10 (76th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Toluca threw more bodies in front of shots with 4 blocks to Chivas's 1 (91st percentile of gaps), while both sides were equally active in clearing the ball under pressure (22 clearances in total, 13th percentile of joint volume). Chivas found more ways to pressure the area, recording 4 corners to Toluca's 2 (71st percentile of gaps) in a match with few corners overall (6 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume). Both sides remained dangerous in front of goal, recording 9 shots on target in total (73rd percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Toluca win 58%, draw 25%, and Chivas win 17%. The performances pointed to a Toluca win and that is what happened, supported by Toluca creating 3 big chances to Chivas's 2.