Sport Boys vs ADC Juan Pablo II — Peruvian Liga 1

**Sport Boys 1-1 ADC Juan Pablo II**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 51% of matches. The primary source of this atypicality was the duels (41% of the unusualness), followed by the build-up (32% of the unusualness). A striking feature was the ground battle: few ground duels won overall (58 in total, 6th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet ADC Juan Pablo II was clearly ahead with 40 to Sport Boys' 18, a +22 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Furthermore, the build-up was defined by a lack of territorial penetration, with only 180 passes in the opponent's half between the two teams (3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume) and no real difference between them.

**How it played out:** Both sides were content to keep the ball in their own halves, completing 192 passes in their own half (8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. This patient build-up from the back was met with heavy defensive pressure, as both teams did a lot of clearances (50 in total, 86th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. ADC Juan Pablo II also threw more bodies in front of shots, making 5 blocked shots to Sport Boys' 2, a +3 gap at the 76th percentile of gaps. While Sport Boys maintained sustained pressure near the goal to earn 10 corners to ADC Juan Pablo II's 3, a +7 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps, the attacking output remained restricted. There were few shots from distance in the match, but ADC Juan Pablo II was clearly ahead with 4 to Sport Boys' 1, an +3 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Sport Boys win 37%, draw 32%, and ADC Juan Pablo II win 31%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of this wide-open game where both sides recorded 4 shots on target.