Hungary vs Ukraine — UEFA Nations League B

**Hungary 0-1 Ukraine**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits; 53% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking contrast was in the duels, where few successful dribbles occurred in the match (5 in total, 2nd percentile of joint volume), yet Hungary was clearly ahead with 4 to Ukraine's 1 (+3, 71st percentile of gaps). Build-up also stood out, as both teams recorded a high volume of accurate crosses (11 in total, 93rd percentile of joint volume), with Hungary making 7 to Ukraine's 4 (+3, 73rd percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Both sides were patient in their own halves, completing a high volume of passes (469 in total, 89th percentile of joint volume) with no real difference between them. While direct play was limited, few accurate long balls occurred in the match, but Hungary was clearly ahead with 22 to Ukraine's 16 (+6, 68th percentile of gaps). Ukraine took a more proactive approach in winning the ball back, recording 20 tackles to Hungary's 10 (+10, 93rd percentile of gaps). They also found more success in reading the game, as few interceptions occurred in the match, but Ukraine was clearly ahead with 10 to Hungary's 4 (+6, 84th percentile of gaps). Ukraine faced more pressure, recording 39 clearances to Hungary's 13 (+26, 93rd percentile of gaps) and 5 blocked shots to Hungary's 2 (+3, 75th percentile of gaps). Despite this, both teams were active in the final third, recording 18 shots inside the box (87th percentile of joint volume), with Hungary making 12 to Ukraine's 6 (+6, 74th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Hungary win 30%, draw 31%, and Ukraine win 39%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Ukraine's win was supported by 3 big chances to Hungary's 1, despite Hungary having 4 shots on target to Ukraine's 3.