Kuwait vs Iraq — Gulf Cup

**Kuwait 2-3 Iraq**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 77% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts: few shots from distance in the match, but Iraq was clearly ahead (Iraq 7, Kuwait 1), a gap at the 95th percentile. Iraq also showed a significant advantage in territorial control: few passes in the opponent's half in the match, but Iraq was clearly ahead (Iraq 189, Kuwait 58), a gap at the 86th percentile. Furthermore, Iraq dominated the flanks with 10 accurate crosses to Kuwait's 2, a gap at the 97th percentile.

**How it played out:** Iraq maintained pressure near the goal, evidenced by 6 corners to Kuwait's 1, a gap at the 91st percentile, while both sides were active in the box with 8 shots each (16 in total, 87th percentile of joint volume). Iraq also excelled in one-on-one situations, recording 13 successful dribbles to Kuwait's 6, a gap at the 94th percentile. On the other side, Kuwait was more active in winning the ball back by challenging: few tackles in the match, but Kuwait was clearly ahead (Kuwait 15, Iraq 9), a gap at the 86th percentile. Kuwait also faced more pressure, recording 31 clearances to Iraq's 15, a gap at the 93rd percentile. The physical battle was intense for both sides, with 77 ground duels won (80th percentile of joint volume) and 31 aerial duels won (73rd percentile of joint volume), with Kuwait winning 18 to Iraq's 13, a gap at the 74th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Kuwait win 32%, draw 47%, and Iraq win 21%. The performances pointed to a draw, and the actual result had only a 21% probability. Despite Kuwait creating 3 big chances to Iraq's 1, Iraq secured the win.