Llaneros FC vs América de Cali — Colombian Primera A

**Llaneros FC 1-2 América de Cali**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 90% of matches in the database, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attack (43%) and build-up (25%). The data highlights a strange contrast in direct play: few shots from distance in the match, but Llaneros FC was clearly ahead (Llaneros FC 6, América de Cali 0, 93rd percentile of gaps). Furthermore, few accurate long balls in the match, but Llaneros FC was clearly ahead (Llaneros FC 28, América de Cali 14, 87th percentile of gaps). These figures suggest a game where Llaneros FC bypassed the midfield more frequently despite a low overall volume of long-range attempts.

**How it played out:** América de Cali exerted significant territorial control, recording 197 passes in the opponent's half compared to Llaneros FC's 98 (86th percentile of gaps). This pressure was reflected in the defensive actions of Llaneros FC, who recorded 30 clearances to América de Cali's 18 (86th percentile of gaps) and 2 blocked shots to 0 (85th percentile of gaps). While Llaneros FC was more active in winning the ball back by challenging, there were few tackles in the match, but Llaneros FC was clearly ahead (Llaneros FC 12, América de Cali 6, 85th percentile of gaps). In the final third, both teams were dangerous, recording 11 shots on target (87th percentile of joint volume). América de Cali was more effective at penetrating the box, with 13 shots inside the box to Llaneros FC's 6 (92nd percentile of gaps), and they created 2 more big chances than the other side (92nd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Llaneros FC win 23%, draw 34%, and América de Cali win 43%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-2 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where América de Cali secured 2 big chances to Llaneros FC's 0.