Avispa Fukuoka - JEF United Chiba — J1 League

**Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 JEF United Chiba**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (57% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily driven by build-up (42%) and defending (30%). Avispa Fukuoka showed significant territorial control, completing 278 passes in the opponent's half compared to JEF United Chiba's 92, a +186 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps. Conversely, JEF United Chiba spent much more time defending deep, recording 36 clearances to Avispa Fukuoka's 13, a +23 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** JEF United Chiba operated with a patient build-up from the back, completing 220 passes in their own half compared to Avispa Fukuoka's 167, a +53 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. While both sides were conservative with direct play, recording only 43 accurate long balls in total (21st percentile of joint volume), JEF United Chiba was clearly ahead in the air with 4 accurate crosses to Avispa Fukuoka's 1, a +3 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps. In a match with few corners overall (6 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume), JEF United Chiba was clearly ahead with 4 to Avispa Fukuoka's 2, a +2 gap at the 71st percentile of gaps. Defensively, JEF United Chiba also recorded 11 interceptions to Avispa Fukuoka's 5, a +6 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps, in a match with few interceptions overall (16 in total, 28th percentile of joint volume). Despite these defensive efforts, both teams created a high volume of scoring opportunities, with 7 big chances in total (90th percentile of joint volume). Avispa Fukuoka was more direct in their threat, recording 8 shots on target to JEF United Chiba's 4, a +4 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Avispa Fukuoka win 43%, draw 27%, and JEF United Chiba win 30%. The performances leaned towards an Avispa Fukuoka win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 8 shots on target to 4, the 2-2 draw remains a plausible outcome.