KR Reykjavík - Breiðablik — Besta deild karla

**KR Reykjavík 3-3 Breiðablik**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 91% of matches. The unusualness was distributed across attack (33%), build-up (31%), and defending (30%), with duels making up only 6%. Both teams created a massive volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 10 big chances in total at the 99th percentile of joint volume. Within that, Breiðablik held a significant edge, creating 7 big chances to KR Reykjavík's 3, a gap at the 94th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** The direct threat on goal was perfectly balanced, as both teams registered 10 shots on target each, totaling 20 at the 99th percentile of joint volume. KR Reykjavík exerted sustained pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 14 corners to Breiðablik's 7, a +7 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps, while both sides combined for 21 corners at the 99th percentile of joint volume. This pressure was supported by a high volume of accurate crosses, with 17 in total at the 99th percentile of joint volume, and KR Reykjavík leading 10 to 7. Despite this, neither side managed to camp in the opponent's half, with only 246 passes in the opponent's half between them, a low volume at the 29th percentile of joint volume. Defensively, both sides were under constant pressure, recording 76 clearances in total at the 99th percentile of joint volume, with KR Reykjavík also throwing more bodies in front of shots, recording 7 blocked shots to Breiðablik's 4, a +3 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Breiðablik won the ball back more frequently through challenges, recording 23 tackles to KR Reykjavík's 11, a +12 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps, while KR Reykjavík won more aerial duels, 21 to 13, a +8 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are KR Reykjavík win 15%, draw 43%, and Breiðablik win 42%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 3-3 draw follows a match where both sides were equally capable of creating 10 shots on target.