LDU de Quito - Universidad Católica — Ecuadorian Serie A

**LDU de Quito 2-1 Universidad Católica**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (66% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the high volume of long-range attempts, with both teams recording 16 shots from distance (86th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Universidad Católica was particularly active in this area, making 12 shots from distance compared to LDU de Quito's 4, a gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Despite these long-range efforts, both sides maintained a high volume of direct threats on goal, recording 10 shots on target (79th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** The build-up was defined by a direct approach, as both teams recorded a high volume of accurate long balls (75 in total, 96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. Universidad Católica found more success down the flanks, recording 7 accurate crosses to LDU de Quito's 3 (86th percentile of gaps). This pressure resulted in a high volume of corners for both sides, with 12 in total (88th percentile of joint volume). In defensive actions, LDU de Quito was more proactive in winning the ball back, making 19 tackles to Universidad Católica's 14 (82nd percentile of gaps), and they also recorded 13 interceptions to 9 (82nd percentile of gaps). Conversely, Universidad Católica spent more time defending deep, recording 25 clearances to LDU de Quito's 15 (69th percentile of gaps). While few successful dribbles occurred in the match (18th percentile of joint volume), LDU de Quito was clearly ahead with 6 to 3 (75th percentile of gaps). Aerial duels were also scarce, with only 17 won between the two teams (14th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are LDU de Quito win 45%, draw 36%, and Universidad Católica win 19%. The performances pointed to a LDU de Quito win (45%), and that is what happened, supported by their 6 shots on target compared to 4 for Universidad Católica.