Poland - Bosnia and Herzegovina — UEFA Nations League B

**Poland 0-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 52% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending (35% of the unusualness), build-up (26%), and duels (22%). A striking contrast emerged in direct play: few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (41 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Bosnia and Herzegovina was clearly ahead with 29 to Poland's 12 (a +17 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps). Conversely, Poland was more active in cutting passing lanes, recording 16 interceptions to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 9 (a +7 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps) in a game with many interceptions overall (25 in total, 85th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** The two sides often retreated into a patient or safe build-up from the back, with 415 passes in their own half (72nd percentile of joint volume), though Bosnia and Herzegovina made 239 of those compared to Poland's 176 (a +63 gap at the 75th percentile of gaps). Defensively, both teams were under pressure, resulting in many clearances (52 in total, 90th percentile of joint volume), with Bosnia and Herzegovina making 35 to Poland's 17 (a +18 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps). Poland won more ground duels, 41 to 31 (a +10 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps), and few successful dribbles were recorded in the match (11 in total, 12th percentile of joint volume), but Poland was clearly ahead with 9 to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 2 (a +7 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps). In the final third, both teams did a lot of shots from distance (13 in total, 92nd percentile of joint volume), with Poland making 8 to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 5 (a +3 gap at the 75th percentile of gaps). While few shots on target were recorded in the match (5 in total, 21st percentile of joint volume), Poland was clearly ahead with 4 to Bosnia and Herzegovina's 1 (a +3 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Poland win 37%, draw 39%, and Bosnia and Herzegovina win 24%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 0-0 draw is not surprising given that Poland had 4 shots on target while Bosnia and Herzegovina had only 1.