Tai Po - Lion City Sailors FC — AFC Champions League 2

**Tai Po 0-1 Lion City Sailors FC**

**What set this match apart:** A fairly ordinary match with a few distinctive traits (56% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up, which accounted for 56% of the atypicality. Lion City Sailors FC was clearly ahead in territorial control, making 232 passes in the opponent's half compared to Tai Po's 43, a +189 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps, even though only 275 such passes were made in total (1st percentile of joint volume). Similarly, Lion City Sailors FC was clearly ahead in direct play, recording 34 accurate long balls to Tai Po's 13, a +21 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps, in a match where only 47 were completed in total (10th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Lion City Sailors FC maintained pressure near the goal, recording 9 corners to Tai Po's 3, a +6 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps, and 8 accurate crosses to 2, a +6 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. While there were few big chances in the match, Lion City Sailors FC was clearly ahead, creating 2 to Tai Po's 0, a +2 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Tai Po, meanwhile, was more active in individual duels, winning 6 successful dribbles to 2, a +4 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps, and 35 ground duels to 25, a +10 gap at the 88th percentile of gaps, in a game with few such contests overall. Tai Po also won more aerial duels, 12 to 7, a +5 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps, in a match where only 19 were won in total (15th percentile of joint volume). Both sides were under pressure, recording 8 blocked shots in total (73rd percentile of joint volume), with Tai Po making 4 more than the Sailors (6 to 2, 94th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Tai Po win 30%, draw 32%, and Lion City Sailors FC win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 0-1 scoreline reflects a match where Lion City Sailors FC had more big chances (2 to 0) and more shots on target (3 to 2).