Fatih Karagümrük - Keçiörengücü — Türkiye 1. Lig

**Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Keçiörengücü**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 53% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (37%) and defending (35%). The most striking contrast lies in the patient build-up from the back: both teams completed a high volume of passes in their own half (438 in total, 78th percentile of joint volume), but Fatih Karagümrük made 297 compared to Keçiörengücü's 141, a +156 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. Conversely, Keçiörengücü was much more active in blocking shots, recording 8 compared to Fatih Karagümrük's 2, a +6 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps in a match where 10 blocks were recorded (75th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** Fatih Karagümrük was more active in winning the ball back and moving forward, recording 17 tackles to Keçiörengücü's 9, a +8 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. They also recorded 14 interceptions to 7, a +7 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps, while beating opponents one-on-one with 10 successful dribbles to 4, a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. Despite this, the attacking output was shared: both sides took 22 shots inside the box (91st percentile of joint volume) and 14 from distance (89th percentile of joint volume). Fatih Karagümrük had a slight edge in these areas, with 14 and 9 shots inside the box and from distance respectively, compared to Keçiörengücü's 8 and 5. While few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (6 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume), Fatih Karagümrük was clearly ahead with 5 to 1. Keçiörengücü, meanwhile, utilized more direct play, making 35 accurate long balls to Fatih Karagümrük's 29, a +6 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Fatih Karagümrük win 28%, draw 27%, and Keçiörengücü win 45%. The performances pointed to a Keçiörengücü win and that is what happened, with both sides creating 2 big chances each.