**Mardin 1969 Spor 2-1 Manisa Futbol Kulübü**
**What set this match apart:**
This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (84% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking anomalies occurred in the duels and defending. Few aerial duels won in the match, but Mardin 1969 Spor was clearly ahead, winning 8 to 1 (88th percentile of gaps). Conversely, while there were few interceptions overall (15 in total, 17th percentile of joint volume), Manisa Futbol Kulübü was clearly ahead, recording 11 to Mardin 1969 Spor's 4 (89th percentile of gaps).
**How it played out:**
Mardin 1969 Spor established a physical presence by winning 40 ground duels to Manisa Futbol Kulübü's 33 (80th percentile of gaps). They also faced significant pressure, evidenced by 22 clearances to 18 (70th percentile of gaps). Manisa Futbol Kulübü focused on a patient build-up from the back, completing 226 passes in their own half compared to 141 for Mardin 1969 Spor (83rd percentile of gaps). This patient approach allowed them to get into dangerous areas, as they recorded 9 shots inside the box to Mardin 1969 Spor's 6 (76th percentile of gaps). Both sides utilized the flanks frequently, completing 10 accurate crosses in total (80th percentile of joint volume), with Manisa Futbol Kulübü making 6 to Mardin 1969 Spor's 4 (73rd percentile of gaps). Despite the activity, successful dribbles were rare for both sides, with only 9 in total (23rd percentile of joint volume).
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are Mardin 1969 Spor win 34%, draw 40%, and Manisa Futbol Kulübü win 26%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Mardin 1969 Spor secured the win despite having only 2 big chances compared to Manisa Futbol Kulübü's 1.
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