Tranmere Rovers contra Bristol Rovers — League Two

**Tranmere Rovers 1-2 Bristol Rovers**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 87% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (36%) and defending (30%). The most striking figures come from the lack of patient build-up from the back, as both teams completed only 144 passes in their own half (2nd percentile of joint volume). Conversely, both sides were extremely active in clearing the ball, recording 68 clearances in total (97th percentile of joint volume), with Tranmere Rovers making 41 to Bristol Rovers' 27 (89th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The game was defined by a physical battle in the air, with 48 aerial duels won (87th percentile of joint volume) and Bristol Rovers winning 29 to Tranmere Rovers' 19 (94th percentile of gaps). While both sides were direct, Tranmere Rovers bypassed the midfield more effectively, recording 36 accurate long balls to Bristol Rovers' 28 (74th percentile of gaps). This directness was mirrored on the flanks, where both teams produced a high volume of accurate crosses (14 in total, 90th percentile of joint volume), though Tranmere Rovers led with 10 to Bristol Rovers' 4 (91st percentile of gaps). Despite this activity, few shots were taken inside the box (8 in total, 15th percentile of joint volume), and few successful dribbles were recorded (12 in total, 11th percentile of joint volume), though Tranmere Rovers was clearly ahead with 10 to Bristol Rovers' 2 (95th percentile of gaps). Bristol Rovers also won more tackles, 25 to Tranmere Rovers' 20 (75th percentile of gaps), while both sides were equally limited in their ability to intercept passes (11 in total, 13th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Tranmere Rovers win 28%, draw 54%, and Bristol Rovers win 18%. The performances pointed toward a draw, and the actual result had only an 18% probability. With Tranmere Rovers creating 2 big chances to Bristol Rovers' 0, the result was a slight deviation from the expected statistical trend.