Chivas contra Tijuana — Liga MX

**Chivas 0-0 Tijuana**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 72% of matches were more unusual than this one. The most striking contrast was in territorial control, where Chivas made 384 passes in the opponent's half compared to Tijuana's 79, a +305 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both teams threw bodies in front of shots, recording 13 blocked shots in total, a volume at the 99th percentile of joint volume. While Tijuana made 8 of those blocks to Chivas's 5, the overall defensive effort was high for both sides.

**How it played out:** Chivas exerted sustained pressure near the goal, evidenced by 8 corners to Tijuana's 2, a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. This pressure translated into clear-cut opportunities, as Chivas created 4 big chances to Tijuana's 0, a +4 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps, and 14 shots inside the box to 5. Tijuana, meanwhile, focused on winning the ball back and staying compact. There were few tackles in the match, but Tijuana was clearly ahead with 22 to Chivas's 8, a +14 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Similarly, few ground duels were won in the match, but Tijuana was clearly ahead with 33 to Chivas's 22, a +11 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Both sides also took a high volume of long-range attempts when the box was crowded, with 8 shots from distance each, a joint volume at the 98th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Chivas win 33%, draw 39%, and Tijuana win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Chivas had 4 big chances to Tijuana's 0, yet the 0-0 remains a logical conclusion.