Ilves contra AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga

**Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart; 98% of matches were more unusual than this one. The game was defined by a high volume of ground duels, with both teams winning 46 each (92 in total, 96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Build-up was also a key factor, as both sides completed a massive amount of passes in their own half (Ilves 238, AC Oulu 233; 471 in total, 96th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** The match was a physical contest on the ground, with both teams also recording a high volume of successful dribbles (21 in total, 85th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), though AC Oulu had a +5 edge (13 to 8, 85th percentile of gaps). Territorial control was significant, with 337 passes in the opponent's half (79th percentile of joint volume), and AC Oulu was much more active there with 201 passes compared to Ilves' 136 (+65, 79th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Ilves was under more pressure, as they made 26 clearances to AC Oulu's 8 (+18, 94th percentile of gaps) and 4 blocked shots to 0 (+4, 95th percentile of gaps) in a game with few clearances and blocks overall. In terms of direct threat, the game was cagey with only 3 shots on target in total (8th percentile of joint volume). AC Oulu attempted more long-range shots (6 to 2, 86th percentile of gaps), but both sides struggled to create clear-cut opportunities, with only 1 big chance recorded in the match (8th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The performances pointed to a Ilves win (55%), and that is what happened. The fair probabilities are Ilves win 55%, draw 31%, and AC Oulu win 14%. With Ilves recording 2 shots on target to AC Oulu's 1, the result was deserved.