**FC Heidenheim 0-2 Mainz 05**
**What set this match apart:**
This match was more unusual than 51% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the attacking output, which accounted for 40% of the atypicality. Both teams were involved in a high volume of clear-cut scoring opportunities, creating 7 big chances each for a joint total of 14, which sits at the 99th percentile of their joint volume. Furthermore, the direct threat on goal was significant, with 14 shots on target recorded in total, a figure at the 94th percentile of their joint volume.
**How it played out:**
Mainz 05 utilized a more direct approach to bypass the midfield, recording 38 accurate long balls compared to 20 for FC Heidenheim, a +18 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. While Mainz 05 was clearly ahead in the few successful dribbles recorded in the match, with 6 to 3, they also dominated the physical battle in the air, winning 17 aerial duels to 10, a +7 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps. FC Heidenheim looked to exploit the flanks, producing 7 accurate crosses to 3 for Mainz 05, a +4 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps, and earned 6 corners to 3, a +3 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were under constant pressure, evidenced by a high volume of clearances (26 for FC Heidenheim and 31 for Mainz 05) at the 93rd percentile of joint volume, and 8 blocked shots in total at the 88th percentile.
**Verdict:**
The fair probabilities are FC Heidenheim win 12%, draw 40%, and Mainz 05 win 48%. The performances pointed to a Mainz 05 win and that is what happened, as they managed 9 shots on target compared to 5 for FC Heidenheim.
This analysis is generated by an internally developed model and may contain inaccuracies · Experimental
