Sweden contra Tunisia — World Cup

**Sweden 5-1 Tunisia**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (99% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast was found in the defensive pressure, where Sweden made 23 clearances to Tunisia's 13, a +10 gap at the 86th percentile of gaps. On the other side of the pitch, Tunisia won 36 ground duels to Sweden's 26, a +10 gap also at the 86th percentile of gaps. These figures highlight a game where both sides were heavily involved in physical and defensive battles.

**How it played out:** Tunisia took the lead in the physical duels and winning the ball back by challenging, recording 21 tackles to Sweden's 14, a +7 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps. They also managed 7 successful dribbles to Sweden's 5, a +2 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps. Sweden, however, was more effective at creating and finishing. While there were few shots inside the box in the match (11 in total, 20th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Sweden was clearly ahead with 9 to Tunisia's 2, a +7 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps. This translated into a direct threat on goal, as Sweden made 7 shots on target to Tunisia's 2, a +5 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps. Sweden also secured 4 big chances to Tunisia's 0, a +4 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps. Both sides remained patient in their own halves, with 144 passes from Sweden and 147 from Tunisia, a joint volume at the 28th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Sweden win 57%, draw 31%, and Tunisia win 12%. The performances pointed to a Sweden win (57%), and that is what happened. This was supported by Sweden's 4 big chances to Tunisia's 0 and 7 shots on target to 2.