Stjarnan contra KA Akureyri — Besta deild karla

**Stjarnan 3-1 KA Akureyri**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 70% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (46%) and build-up (28%). The most striking feature was the sheer volume of direct threats, as both teams recorded 18 shots on target (98th percentile of joint volume), with Stjarnan making 8 more than the other side (Stjarnan 13, KA Akureyri 5, 98th percentile of gaps). This pressure was sustained through a massive amount of corners, with 20 in total (99th percentile of joint volume), and Stjarnan making 4 more than KA Akureyri (Stjarnan 12, KA Akureyri 8, 81st percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Stjarnan was more effective at penetrating the box, recording 10 more shots inside the area than KA Akureyri (Stjarnan 18, KA Akureyri 8, 94th percentile of gaps). They also controlled the flanks more effectively, making 4 more accurate crosses than the other side (Stjarnan 9, KA Akureyri 5, 82nd percentile of gaps). While there were few passes in the opponent's half in the match, Stjarnan was clearly ahead with 105 more than KA Akureyri (Stjarnan 193, KA Akureyri 88, 80th percentile of gaps). KA Akureyri, meanwhile, focused on defensive disruption, making 9 more tackles than Stjarnan (KA Akureyri 20, Stjarnan 11, 90th percentile of gaps) and 9 more clearances (KA Akureyri 31, Stjarnan 22, 67th percentile of gaps). Both sides were under constant pressure, evidenced by 10 blocked shots in total (95th percentile of joint volume). KA Akureyri also found more space for long-range attempts, making 3 more shots from distance than Stjarnan (KA Akureyri 7, Stjarnan 4, 80th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Stjarnan win 38%, draw 34%, and KA Akureyri win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Stjarnan's win was supported by 13 shots on target compared to 5 for KA Akureyri.