Puebla contra Chivas — Liga MX

**Puebla 1-1 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 86% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attacking phase (41%) and build-up (25%). The most striking contrast appeared in the final third: few shots inside the box were recorded overall (17 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Chivas was clearly ahead with 16 to Puebla's 1 (99th percentile of gaps). This was mirrored in the build-up, where both teams recorded a high volume of passes in the opponent's half (439 in total, 95th percentile of joint volume), but Chivas was clearly ahead with 298 to Puebla's 141 (94th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Chivas maintained a significant edge in direct threats, recording 9 shots on target to Puebla's 3 (96th percentile of gaps) in a match where both sides produced a high volume of shots on target (12 in total, 74th percentile of joint volume). While both teams took a high volume of shots from distance (14 in total, 93rd percentile of joint volume), Chivas held a slight lead with 8 to Puebla's 6 (72nd percentile of gaps). Puebla utilized a more direct approach to bypass the midfield, recording 36 accurate long balls to Chivas's 25 (81st percentile of gaps) in a match with a high volume of such passes (61 in total, 71st percentile of joint volume). Conversely, Chivas was clearly ahead in attacking down the flanks, recording 7 accurate crosses to Puebla's 0 (96th percentile of gaps) in a match with few accurate crosses overall (7 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume). Puebla's defensive posture was defined by pressure, as they recorded 40 clearances to Chivas's 10 (99th percentile of gaps). The game remained physically level, with both sides recording a low volume of ground duels won (53 in total, 11th percentile of joint volume) and few interceptions (8 in total, 4th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Puebla win 28%, draw 34%, and Chivas win 38%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open match where Chivas had 9 shots on target to Puebla's 3.