Nashville SC contra Leon — Leagues Cup

**Nashville SC 0-1 Leon**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (88% of matches were more unusual than this one). The slight atypicality was concentrated in the build-up (46% of the unusualness) and the attack (26%). Despite the low volume of long-range attempts in the match (5 in total, 8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Leon was clearly ahead with 4 to Nashville SC's 1 (80th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few big chances occurred in the match (2 in total, 14th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Leon was clearly ahead with 2 to Nashville SC's 0 (70th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** The build-up was defined by contrasting styles. Nashville SC was clearly ahead in the air with 5 accurate crosses to Leon's 0 (87th percentile of gaps), while Leon was clearly ahead in direct play with 28 accurate long balls to Nashville SC's 19 (81st percentile of gaps), despite few accurate long balls in the match (47 in total, 27th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Both sides were patient in their own half, completing 409 passes in total (81st percentile of joint volume), with Nashville SC making 245 to Leon's 164 (80th percentile of gaps). They were also level in territorial control, with 331 passes in the opponent's half (80th percentile of joint volume). In the physical battle, Nashville SC was clearly ahead in the air with 10 aerial duels won to Leon's 7 (70th percentile of gaps) and won 42 ground duels to Leon's 38 (69th percentile of gaps), while both teams won 80 ground duels in total (81st percentile of joint volume). Defensively, Nashville SC was clearly ahead in blocked shots with 1 to Leon's 0 (76th percentile of gaps), while both sides recorded few interceptions (13 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Nashville SC win 38%, draw 34%, and Leon win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. Leon secured the win despite both sides recording 2 shots on target.