Monza contra Avellino — Coppa Italia

**Monza 3-0 Avellino**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (66% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (43%), followed by the attack (23%), defending (19%), and duels (14%). Both teams were highly active in the opponent's territory, completing 429 passes in the opponent's half (Monza 241, Avellino 188), a volume at the 98th percentile of joint volume. Despite this high volume of territorial control, few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (48 in total, 10th percentile of joint volume), but Monza was clearly ahead with 35 to Avellino's 13 (96th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Monza was the more proactive side in the final third, creating 4 big chances to Avellino's 0 (92nd percentile of gaps). They were also much more frequent in dangerous areas, recording 15 shots inside the box compared to Avellino's 4 (95th percentile of gaps), and they took 7 shots from distance to Avellino's 2 (89th percentile of gaps). Monza also won more ground duels (44 to 30, 95th percentile of gaps) and recorded 21 tackles to Avellino's 14 (89th percentile of gaps). Conversely, Avellino spent much of the game defending deep; while there were few clearances in the match (42 in total, 30th percentile of joint volume), Avellino was clearly ahead with 33 to Monza's 9 (93rd percentile of gaps). In the air, Avellino won more duels (15 to 8, 87th percentile of gaps) in a game with few aerial duels won overall (23 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume). Monza also had a lead in corners, recording 5 to Avellino's 1 (81st percentile of gaps) in a match with few corners overall (6 in total, 11th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Monza win 47%, draw 34%, and Avellino win 19%. The performances pointed to a Monza win (47%), and that is what happened, supported by Monza creating 4 big chances to Avellino's 0.