Barnet contra Cheltenham Town — League Two

**Barnet 2-2 Cheltenham Town**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 89% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by defending (44% of the unusualness) and duels (26% of the unusualness). A massive disparity in clearances defined the defensive profile: both teams made a lot of clearances (88 in total, 98th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Cheltenham Town made 42 more than Barnet (65 to 23, 99th percentile of gaps). The physical nature of the game was also extreme, with both teams winning a lot of aerial duels (55 in total, 87th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), and Barnet making 23 more than Cheltenham Town (39 to 16, 100th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Barnet exerted significant pressure in the final third, winning 7 more corners than Cheltenham Town (11 to 4, 94th percentile of gaps). This territorial control was reflected in the build-up, where few passes in the opponent's half were recorded overall (231 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Barnet was clearly ahead with 174 to Cheltenham Town's 57 (117 more, 83rd percentile of gaps). Conversely, few passes in their own half were made in the match (218 in total, 11th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Cheltenham Town was clearly ahead with 133 to Barnet's 85 (48 more, 71st percentile of gaps). Cheltenham Town also won the battle for direct threat, making 3 more shots on target than Barnet (5 to 2, 83rd percentile of gaps). The game remained highly combative on the ground, with Barnet winning 8 more ground duels (38 to 30, 83rd percentile of gaps), while Cheltenham Town won 9 more interceptions (14 to 5, 94th percentile of gaps) and made 6 more tackles (21 to 15, 80th percentile of gaps). Neither side could break the lines with individual skill, as both teams recorded very few successful dribbles (4 and 3, 14th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Barnet win 16%, draw 27%, and Cheltenham Town win 57%. The performances leaned towards a Cheltenham Town win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With 5 shots on target for Cheltenham Town compared to 2 for Barnet, the draw was a plausible outcome.