Pachuca contra Chivas — Liga MX

**Pachuca 1-1 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 55% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the build-up (40%) and the attacking actions (29%). A defining characteristic was the disparity in patient build-up from the back: Chivas made 289 passes in their own half compared to Pachuca's 134, a +155 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps, even though both sides combined for a high volume of such passes (423 in total, 72nd percentile of joint volume). Meanwhile, both teams maintained a high volume of pressure near the opponent's goal, recording 15 corners in total, which ranks at the 97th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** The game was a physical contest on the ground, with Chivas winning 45 ground duels to Pachuca's 31, a +14 gap at the 95th percentile of gaps. In the air, the contest was much tighter; few aerial duels were won in the match (18 in total, 14th percentile of joint volume), but Pachuca was clearly ahead with 11 to Chivas's 7, a +4 gap at the 75th percentile of gaps. Despite the defensive work, both sides were frequently under pressure, recording 8 blocked shots in total (88th percentile of joint volume). Pachuca was clearly ahead in the wide areas, recording 8 accurate crosses to Chivas's 1, a +7 gap at the 94th percentile of gaps. Both teams were active in the final third, recording 17 shots inside the box in total (75th percentile of joint volume) and 12 shots on target (91st percentile of joint volume). Chivas created more clear-cut scoring opportunities, with 2 big chances to Pachuca's 1, a +1 gap at the 85th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Pachuca win 26%, draw 25%, and Chivas win 49%. The performances leaned towards a Chivas win, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With Chivas creating 2 big chances to Pachuca's 1, the 1-1 draw remains a plausible outcome.