Sporting CP contra Galatasaray — Champions League

**Sporting CP 3-1 Galatasaray**

**What set this match apart:** A very typical match: only small details set it apart (97% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking contrast appeared in territorial control, where both teams completed a high volume of passes in the opponent's half (385 in total, 78th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Galatasaray was significantly more active with 269 to Sporting CP's 116 (a +153 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps). This was mirrored by a physical disparity in the air, where Sporting CP won 10 aerial duels to Galatasaray's 5 (a +5 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps), despite very few aerial duels being won in the match overall (15 in total, 7th percentile of the two teams' joint volume).

**How it played out:** Galatasaray's heavy presence in the final third was evident as they recorded 8 shots inside the box compared to Sporting CP's 4 (an +4 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). This pressure resulted in 4 corners for Galatasaray to Sporting CP's 1 (a +3 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps), even though few corners were awarded in the match overall (5 in total, 9th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Sporting CP, however, were more effective at creating a direct threat, finding 5 shots on target to Galatasaray's 3 (a +2 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps). While few shots from distance were taken in the match (6 in total, 23rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), Sporting CP was clearly ahead with 4 to Galatasaray's 2 (a +2 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps). Defensively, Sporting CP was more active in clearing the ball under pressure, recording 25 clearances to Galatasaray's 8 (a +17 gap at the 93rd percentile of gaps), even though few clearances were made in the match overall (33 in total, 18th percentile of the two teams' joint volume). Both sides were equally adept at reading the game and beating opponents one-on-one, recording 12 interceptions and 9 successful dribbles each.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Sporting CP win 47%, draw 26%, and Galatasaray win 27%. The performances pointed to a Sporting CP win (47%), and that is what happened. This was supported by Sporting CP's 5 shots on target to Galatasaray's 3.