Kriens contra Etoile Carouge — Swiss Challenge League

**Kriens 4-1 Etoile Carouge**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 72% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by the attacking phase (34%) and defending (27%). The volume of scoring opportunities was immense, as both teams created 7 big chances in total, a figure at the 97th percentile of joint volume. Kriens held a significant edge in this area, creating 5 big chances compared to 2 for Etoile Carouge, a gap at the 76th percentile. Furthermore, the teams were constantly penetrating the box, recording 21 shots inside the area (86th percentile of joint volume), with Etoile Carouge making 14 of those to Kriens' 7, a gap at the 92nd percentile.

**How it played out:** Etoile Carouge utilized a direct approach to bypass the midfield, recording 50 accurate long balls to Kriens' 23, a gap at the 99th percentile of gaps in a match where 73 such balls were completed (81st percentile of joint volume). While few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (6 in total, 18th percentile of joint volume), Etoile Carouge was clearly ahead with 5 to Kriens' 1, a gap at the 87th percentile. On the defensive side, Kriens faced significant pressure, recording 28 clearances to Etoile Carouge's 18, a gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps, and 8 blocked shots to 3, a gap at the 97th percentile. Kriens also won more tackles (24 to 20) and a higher volume of shots on target (7 to 5, a 69th percentile gap). In the physical duels, Etoile Carouge won more ground duels (47 to 40, a 79th percentile gap) and dominated the air with 17 aerial duels won to Kriens' 6, a gap at the 96th percentile.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Kriens win 46%, draw 26%, and Etoile Carouge win 28%. The performances pointed to a Kriens win (46%), and that is what happened. This result was supported by Kriens creating 5 big chances to Etoile Carouge's 2.