Aucas contra CSD Macará — Ecuadorian Serie A

**Aucas 1-2 CSD Macará**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 77% of matches, with the atypicality primarily driven by build-up (47%) and defending (28%). The data highlights a stark contrast in direct play: few accurate long balls were recorded in the match (36 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Aucas was clearly ahead with 25 to CSD Macará's 11 (a +14 gap at the 87th percentile of gaps). Conversely, the defensive profile was defined by a lack of challenges: few tackles were made in the match (31 in total, 14th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet CSD Macará was clearly ahead with 24 to Aucas's 7 (a +17 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Aucas sought to control the game through territorial dominance, making 189 passes in the opponent's half compared to CSD Macará's 69 (a +120 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps), even though few passes were made in that area overall (258 in total, 8th percentile of joint volume). This was balanced by a patient build-up from the back, as both teams completed a high volume of passes in their own half (450 in total, 80th percentile of joint volume), with Aucas making 308 to CSD Macará's 142 (a +166 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps). In the final third, both sides were active, recording 18 shots inside the box (72nd percentile of joint volume), with Aucas making 12 to CSD Macará's 6 (a +6 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). Aucas also found more success on the flanks, recording 7 accurate crosses to CSD Macará's 4 (a +3 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps), and earned 5 corners to CSD Macará's 1 (a +4 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps) in a match with few corners overall (6 in total, 11th percentile of joint volume). Aerial duels remained a non-factor, with both sides winning 6 each in a game where only 12 were won in total (5th percentile of joint volume).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Aucas win 24%, draw 35%, and CSD Macará win 41%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-2 scoreline reflects a wide-open contest where Aucas had 2 big chances to CSD Macará's 1.