São Paulo contra Internacional — Brasileirão

**São Paulo 1-0 Internacional**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart; 74% of matches were more unusual than this one. The game was defined by a lack of clear-cut scoring opportunities, with only 1 big chance recorded between the two sides, a volume at the 3rd percentile of their joint volume. This scarcity of direct threat was mirrored in the shooting, as only 2 shots on target were recorded in total, placing the match in the 6th percentile of joint volume.

**How it played out:** Internacional sought to control the game through volume, completing 254 passes in the opponent's half compared to São Paulo's 135, a +119 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps. While both sides were active in the final third, Internacional was clearly ahead with 4 accurate crosses to São Paulo's 1, despite only 5 accurate crosses in the match. Internacional also looked to find space from distance, recording 8 shots from distance to São Paulo's 3, a gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. On the defensive side, São Paulo was more active in cutting passing lanes, recording 17 interceptions to Internacional's 8, a +9 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps. São Paulo was also clearly ahead in the physical battle, winning 11 aerial duels to Internacional's 7, even though only 18 aerial duels were won in the match. In terms of individual skill, Internacional stood out by completing 15 successful dribbles to São Paulo's 5, a +10 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are São Paulo win 30%, draw 54%, and Internacional win 16%. The performances leaned towards a draw, but the actual result was far from unlikely. With only 1 big chance for São Paulo and 0 for Internacional, the narrow margin reflects a tightly contested affair.