Mexico contra Chile — International Friendlies

**Mexico 0-2 Chile**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 65% of matches. The unusualness was distributed across duels, build-up, and attack, with defending making up the final portion. The most striking traits were found in the physical and technical duels: few successful dribbles were recorded in the match (6 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chile was clearly ahead with 5 to Mexico's 1 (a +4 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few ground duels were won in the match (45 in total, 3rd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Chile was clearly ahead with 27 to Mexico's 18 (a +9 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Chile maintained a physical edge in the air as well, winning 9 aerial duels to Mexico's 6 (a +3 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps) in a game with few aerial duels won overall (15 in total, 19th percentile of joint volume). Mexico focused on territorial control, completing 284 passes in the opponent's half compared to Chile's 103 (a +181 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps). While Mexico was clearly ahead in shots from distance (9 to 1, a +8 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps) despite few shots from distance in the match overall (10 in total, 21st percentile), Chile was more effective in the final third, creating 2 big chances to Mexico's 0 (a +2 gap at the 81st percentile of gaps). Both sides bypassed the midfield frequently, completing 67 accurate long balls in total (93rd percentile of joint volume), with Chile making 37 to Mexico's 30 (a +7 gap at the 74th percentile of gaps). Mexico also had a small edge in attacking down the flanks, with 4 accurate crosses to Chile's 1 (a +3 gap at the 73rd percentile of gaps) in a match with few accurate crosses overall (5 in total, 27th percentile). Defensively, Mexico was more active in reading the game, recording 14 interceptions to Chile's 8 (a +6 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps) in a match with many interceptions overall (22 in total, 75th percentile). Conversely, few tackles were made in the match (20 in total, 8th percentile), but Chile was clearly ahead with 13 to Mexico's 7 (a +6 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps).

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Mexico win 26%, draw 30%, and Chile win 44%. The performances pointed to a Chile win and that is what happened, as they secured 2 big chances to Mexico's 0.