Atlas contra Chivas — Liga MX

**Atlas 1-1 Chivas**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (63% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking differences appeared in the defensive actions of both sides. Chivas made 25 tackles to Atlas's 10, a +15 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps. Conversely, Atlas was much more active in reading the game, recording 15 interceptions to Chivas's 6, a +9 gap at the 97th percentile of gaps.

**How it played out:** The match was defined by a high volume of pressure and defensive work. Both teams took 7 corners each, totaling 14, which ranks at the 95th percentile of joint volume. This sustained pressure led to a high number of clearances, with 45 in total (77th percentile of joint volume), and Atlas making 24 to Chivas's 21, a +3 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps. Atlas also looked to bypass the midfield with direct play, making 35 accurate long balls to Chivas's 24, a +11 gap at the 82nd percentile of gaps. In the final third, few shots from distance in the match, but Chivas was clearly ahead with 5 to Atlas's 0, a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps. Chivas also had a slight edge in defensive positioning, making 2 blocked shots to Atlas's 0, a +2 gap at the 65th percentile of gaps. On the ground, Chivas won 41 duels to Atlas's 34, a +7 gap at the 79th percentile of gaps, while few successful dribbles in the match, but Atlas was clearly ahead with 5 to Chivas's 3, a +2 gap at the 68th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Atlas win 27%, draw 37%, and Chivas win 36%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-1 draw is a reflection of a wide-open game where Chivas had 5 shots on target to Atlas's 3.