Helmond Sport contra NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie

**Helmond Sport 0-2 NAC Breda**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (96% of matches were more unusual than this one). The most striking feature was the patient build-up from the back, as both teams completed a high volume of passes in their own half (Helmond Sport 222, NAC Breda 215; 437 in total, 91st percentile of the two teams' joint volume) with no real difference between them. While the overall game was standard, the unusualness was concentrated in the build-up (49%) and the attack (26%).

**How it played out:** NAC Breda took control of the territory, completing 211 passes in the opponent's half compared to Helmond Sport's 98 (a +113 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps). They also bypassed the midfield more effectively, recording 32 accurate long balls to Helmond Sport's 18 (a +14 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps). In the final third, few accurate crosses were recorded in the match (3 in total, 8th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but NAC Breda was clearly ahead with 3 to 0 (a +3 gap at the 80th percentile of gaps). This translated into a direct threat on goal, with NAC Breda recording 7 shots on target to Helmond Sport's 3 (a +4 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps). Although there were few shots inside the box in the match (10 in total, 24th percentile of joint volume), NAC Breda was clearly ahead with 6 to 4 (a +2 gap at the 71st percentile of gaps). NAC Breda also found more space for long-range attempts, recording 8 shots from distance to Helmond Sport's 3 (a +5 gap at the 91st percentile of gaps), and they created 2 big chances to Helmond Sport's 1 (a +1 gap at the 83rd percentile of gaps). The physical side of the game remained level, with both sides recording 10 tackles and 27 or 28 ground duels each.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Helmond Sport win 20%, draw 28%, and NAC Breda win 52%. The performances pointed to a NAC Breda win (52%), and that is what happened. This was supported by NAC Breda's 7 shots on target to Helmond Sport's 3.