Brentford contra Liverpool — Premier League

**Brentford 1-2 Liverpool**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 80% of matches, with the unusualness primarily driven by the attack (37%) and build-up (27%). The most striking contrast appeared in long-range attempts: few shots from distance were recorded in the match (11 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Liverpool was clearly ahead with 11 to Brentford's 0, a gap at the 99th percentile. Conversely, the build-up showed a different disparity; few accurate long balls were made in the match (43 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), yet Brentford was clearly ahead with 29 to Liverpool's 14, a gap at the 89th percentile.

**How it played out:** Liverpool maintained significant territorial control, making 260 passes in the opponent's half compared to Brentford's 125, a +135 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps, even though the joint volume of such passes was high (385 in total, 84th percentile). This pressure resulted in Liverpool earning 9 corners to Brentford's 3, a gap at the 93rd percentile. Despite this, both sides were equally active in the box, recording 10 shots inside the area each, with 20 in total at the 91st percentile of joint volume. Liverpool also won the battle of individual duels, recording 18 successful dribbles to Brentford's 7, a +11 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps. Defensively, both sides were forced to clear the ball frequently, recording 32 clearances each, a joint volume at the 96th percentile. Brentford was more active in cutting passing lanes, recording 15 interceptions to Liverpool's 9, a +6 gap at the 90th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Brentford win 23%, draw 42%, and Liverpool win 35%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. This is reflected in the fact that Brentford created 2 big chances to Liverpool's 1.