Ilves contra SJK — Veikkausliiga

**Ilves 2-0 SJK**

**What set this match apart:** This match was more unusual than 92% of matches. The unusualness was primarily driven by the defending (32%) and build-up (30%) phases. SJK was clearly ahead in corners, making 10 to Ilves's 0, a +10 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps in a match with few corners overall (10 in total, 5th percentile of joint volume). Conversely, Ilves was clearly ahead in clearances, making 38 to SJK's 6, a +32 gap at the 99th percentile of gaps in a match with few clearances overall (44 in total, 10th percentile of joint volume).

**How it played out:** SJK looked to bypass the midfield with direct play, recording 40 accurate long balls to Ilves's 20, a +20 gap at the 96th percentile of gaps. They also showed a preference for patient build-up from the back, completing 276 passes in their own half compared to Ilves's 164, a +112 gap at the 89th percentile of gaps. Despite this, SJK was more active in dangerous areas, recording 11 shots inside the box to Ilves's 4, a +7 gap at the 92nd percentile of gaps. Ilves focused on reading the game and winning physical battles, recording 12 interceptions to SJK's 2, a +10 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps, and winning 18 aerial duels to SJK's 12, an +6 gap at the 84th percentile of gaps. While few shots on target were recorded in the match (4 in total, 10th percentile of joint volume), Ilves was clearly ahead with 3 to SJK's 1, a +2 gap at the 69th percentile of gaps. SJK also won more one-on-one battles, recording 11 successful dribbles to Ilves's 1, a +10 gap at the 98th percentile of gaps.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Ilves win 53%, draw 35%, and SJK win 12%. The performances pointed to a Ilves win and that is what happened, with Ilves creating 2 big chances to SJK's 1.