Fortuna Sittard contra Excelsior — Eredivisie

**Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior**

**What set this match apart:** This was a very typical match: only small details set it apart (62% of matches were more unusual than this one). The unusualness was primarily concentrated in the build-up (35%), followed by duels (22%), defending (22%), and attack (20%). Despite these minor deviations, the game remained structurally standard. Few successful dribbles were recorded in the match (4 in total, 2nd percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Fortuna Sittard was clearly ahead with 3 to Excelsior's 1 (68th percentile of gaps). Similarly, few shots from distance were taken in the match (2 in total, 4th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Fortuna Sittard was clearly ahead with 2 to Excelsior's 0 (69th percentile of gaps).

**How it played out:** Excelsior took a significant lead in territorial control, completing 239 passes in the opponent's half compared to Fortuna Sittard's 129 (88th percentile of gaps), even though the joint volume of such passes was high (368 in total, 83rd percentile). Excelsior also bypassed the midfield more frequently: few accurate long balls were made in the match (40 in total, 10th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Excelsior was clearly ahead with 25 to Fortuna Sittard's 15 (83rd percentile of gaps). Fortuna Sittard, however, maintained more pressure near the goal, recording 7 corners to Excelsior's 4 (74th percentile of gaps) in a game with a high joint volume of 11. Defensively, Excelsior was more active in winning the ball back: few tackles were made in the match (18 in total, 5th percentile of the two teams' joint volume), but Excelsior was clearly ahead with 11 to Fortuna Sittard's 7 (70th percentile of gaps). Fortuna Sittard was more effective at reading the game, recording 6 interceptions to Excelsior's 4 (70th percentile of gaps) in a match with few interceptions overall (10 in total, 9th percentile). In the final third, Fortuna Sittard was more direct, making 5 shots on target to Excelsior's 2 (78th percentile of gaps), while both sides were level with 5 and 6 shots inside the box respectively.

**Verdict:** The fair probabilities are Fortuna Sittard win 39%, draw 33%, and Excelsior win 28%. With the probabilities so close, every outcome was plausible and no result would have been scandalous. The 1-0 result is not surprising, especially as both sides were level with 1 big chance each.